Image: Covid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by country
Description: The odds ratio (left y axis) of B.1.1.7 versus 'wild' variants is expected to grow exponentially; [0.076] means 7.9% growth per day. Dataset dates are publication dates. 'seq' for data from genomic sequnecing; 'SGTF' for PCR-based data (S-Gene Target Failure; less accurate than sequencing), and PCR for a PCR test specifically designed to detect the VOC (Switzerland only). To convert the log slope s{\displaystyle s} to ratios of reproduction numbers: RVOC/Rother=exp(sTg){\displaystyle R_{\mathrm {VOC} }/R_{\mathrm {other} }=\exp(s\,T_{g})} with Tg{\displaystyle T_{g}} the generation interval (usually assumed 4–6 days). The daily growth factor is exp(s⋅(1 d)){\displaystyle \exp(s\cdot (1~\mathrm {d} ))}. Data sources: DK[1], NL[2][3][4][5], PT[6], CH[7], UK[8], IE[9][10][11]. The logarithmic slopes as indicated are not based on a rigorous uncertainty analysis. Code to generate these graphs: Github/han-kwang. Note: this graph will be updated with new data. References here will be kept up to date. References in figure captions may be outdated.
Title: Covid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by country
Credit: Own work
Author: Hankwang
Usage Terms: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
License: CC BY-SA 4.0
License Link: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Attribution Required?: Yes
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